Poisson model
A scoring model that treats each team's goal count as a random draw whose rate depends on attack and defence strength.
Low-scoring sports such as soccer and hockey fit the Poisson distribution well. Each team's expected scoring rate is derived from its attacking strength, the opponent's defensive strength and home advantage; the distribution then gives the probability of every exact scoreline.
Summing the scoreline probabilities produces win, draw and loss probabilities directly, which is why Poisson models remain a backbone of soccer forecasting.
The bivariate variant lets the two teams' scores correlate, which matters in tight, defensive matches where the independence assumption breaks down.
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