Sports analytics glossary
The vocabulary behind every projection on AI4Gameday, defined without marketing language so you can judge a model on its own terms.
Win probability
The model's estimate of how often a team would win this matchup if it were replayed thousands of times under the same conditions.
Read the definitionCalibration
How closely a model's stated confidence matches its real-world hit rate across many predictions.
Read the definitionConfidence band
The uncertainty attached to a projection, expressed as a range rather than a single point estimate.
Read the definitionConfidence tier
The published label attached to each tracked call: Lean, Moderate or Strong, with Pass meaning no call was made.
Read the definitionBrier score
The mean squared error between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes. Lower is better.
Read the definitionElo rating
A running team strength rating that rises after wins against strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones.
Read the definitionPower rating
A single number summarising team quality after adjusting for schedule strength, pace and luck.
Read the definitionOpponent-adjusted efficiency
Per-possession production corrected for the quality of the defences and offences a team has faced.
Read the definitionStrength of schedule
A measure of how difficult the opponents a team has faced, or will face, actually are.
Read the definitionMonte Carlo simulation
Replaying a season game by game tens of thousands of times to turn per-game probabilities into season-long odds.
Read the definitionExpected goals (xG)
The number of goals an average team would be expected to score from the chances it actually created.
Read the definitionPoisson model
A scoring model that treats each team's goal count as a random draw whose rate depends on attack and defence strength.
Read the definitionPace
How many possessions or plays a team generates per game.
Read the definitionAccuracy ledger
A public, timestamped record of every tracked call and its graded outcome, wins and losses alike.
Read the definitionGraded record
Wins and losses across every call that reached a final result, expressed with the sample size behind it.
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