Confidence band
The uncertainty attached to a projection, expressed as a range rather than a single point estimate.
Every projection carries uncertainty from sample size, missing information and inherent randomness. A confidence band expresses that uncertainty explicitly: instead of only 'home team 64 percent', the model reports the plausible range around that estimate.
Bands widen when information is thin. Early in a season, after a major lineup change, or in a league with high scoring variance, the same headline probability deserves less weight than it would in mid-season with full information.
Reading the band matters more than reading the number. Two calls at 64 percent are not equivalent when one has a tight band built on hundreds of comparable games and the other rests on a handful.
Related terms
See it applied
Every published call on AI4Gameday carries a stated confidence and is graded in public once the game is final.