Confidence tier
The published label attached to each tracked call: Lean, Moderate or Strong, with Pass meaning no call was made.
AI4Gameday groups every published call into a tier so the strength of a signal is legible at a glance. Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate is a clear one, and Strong is reserved for the highest-conviction calls that clear both the confidence floor and the edge floor for that league.
Pass means the model looked at the game and declined to publish a call. Passes are counted and shown, because a system that only reports its picks and hides its abstentions is not a track record.
Tiers are graded separately on the accuracy ledger, so it is possible to check whether Strong calls really do outperform Lean calls over a meaningful sample.
Related terms
See it applied
Every published call on AI4Gameday carries a stated confidence and is graded in public once the game is final.