Major League Soccer predictions for Thursday, July 16, 2026
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Soccer game on Thursday, July 16, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Soccer matchups and model calls
- winSporting Kansas City at St. Louis CITY SCModel call: St. Louis CITY SC (71% confidence, Strong) · Final 2-3
- lossPortland Timbers at Seattle Sounders FCModel call: Seattle Sounders FC (65% confidence, Moderate) · Final 5-1
- PendingVancouver Whitecaps at Chicago Fire FCModel call: Chicago Fire FC (60% confidence, Lean) · 12:30 AM UTC
- PassToronto FC at CF MontréalNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-0
How these Major League Soccer projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Soccer. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained