Major League Soccer predictions for Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Soccer game on Wednesday, July 22, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Soccer matchups and model calls
- winCF Montréal at Nashville SCModel call: Nashville SC (74% confidence, Strong) · Final 0-1
- lossOrlando City SC at San Jose EarthquakesModel call: San Jose Earthquakes (73% confidence, Strong) · Final 4-0
- PendingToronto FC at New England RevolutionModel call: New England Revolution (72% confidence, Strong) · Final 0-0
- lossSt. Louis CITY SC at LA GalaxyModel call: LA Galaxy (72% confidence, Strong) · Final 3-1
- PendingAtlanta United FC at Charlotte FCModel call: Charlotte FC (72% confidence, Strong) · Final 2-2
- winReal Salt Lake at LAFCModel call: LAFC (63% confidence, Lean) · Final 1-3
- winRed Bull New York at Philadelphia UnionModel call: Philadelphia Union (62% confidence, Lean) · Final 1-3
- PendingFC Dallas at Portland TimbersModel call: Portland Timbers (61% confidence, Lean) · Final 2-2
- winSeattle Sounders FC at Austin FCModel call: Austin FC (61% confidence, Lean) · Final 1-3
- PendingD.C. United at Houston Dynamo FCModel call: Houston Dynamo FC (60% confidence, Lean) · Final 1-1
- winChicago Fire FC at Inter Miami CFNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
- winMinnesota United FC at Sporting Kansas CityNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
- winVancouver Whitecaps at FC CincinnatiNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-4
- lossNew York City FC at Columbus CrewNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-1
- winSan Diego FC at Colorado RapidsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-1
How these Major League Soccer projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Soccer. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained