Major League Soccer model projections

Major League Soccer predictions for Saturday, July 25, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Soccer game on Saturday, July 25, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
15
9 published calls
Major League Soccer graded record
71.7%
33 wins, 13 losses across 46 graded calls

Major League Soccer matchups and model calls

  • Inter Miami CF at CF Montréal
    Model call: CF Montréal (68% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-0
    loss
  • Toronto FC at D.C. United
    Model call: D.C. United (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-2
    win
  • Atlanta United FC at New England Revolution
    Model call: New England Revolution (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-4
    win
  • Sporting Kansas City at LAFC
    Model call: LAFC (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 0-4
    win
  • Austin FC at Houston Dynamo FC
    Model call: Houston Dynamo FC (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 0-3
    win
  • LA Galaxy at San Jose Earthquakes
    Model call: San Jose Earthquakes (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-1
    Pending
  • Vancouver Whitecaps at Minnesota United FC
    Model call: Minnesota United FC (63% confidence, Lean) · Final 0-0
    Pending
  • Nashville SC at Orlando City SC
    Model call: Orlando City SC (63% confidence, Lean) · Final 0-1
    win
  • Charlotte FC at Red Bull New York
    Model call: Red Bull New York (60% confidence, Lean) · Final 2-0
    loss
  • FC Cincinnati at Columbus Crew
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
    win
  • FC Dallas at San Diego FC
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-1
    win
  • Chicago Fire FC at New York City FC
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-3
    win
  • Seattle Sounders FC at Philadelphia Union
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-1
    win
  • Colorado Rapids at St. Louis CITY SC
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-1
    win
  • Real Salt Lake at Portland Timbers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
    win

How these Major League Soccer projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Soccer. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Soccer slates