Major League Soccer model projections

Major League Soccer predictions for Saturday, August 1, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Soccer game on Saturday, August 1, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
14
9 published calls
Major League Soccer graded record
71.7%
33 wins, 13 losses across 46 graded calls

Major League Soccer matchups and model calls

  • Nashville SC at D.C. United
    Model call: D.C. United (68% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-2
    Pending
  • Orlando City SC at Red Bull New York
    Model call: Red Bull New York (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-3
    win
  • LAFC at Vancouver Whitecaps
    Model call: Vancouver Whitecaps (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-1
    Pending
  • Seattle Sounders FC at Portland Timbers
    Model call: Portland Timbers (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-2
    win
  • Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF
    Model call: Inter Miami CF (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-2
    Pending
  • Atlanta United FC at Philadelphia Union
    Model call: Philadelphia Union (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-3
    win
  • Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC
    Model call: Chicago Fire FC (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 1-2
    win
  • Austin FC at Colorado Rapids
    Model call: Colorado Rapids (67% confidence, Moderate) · Final 0-1
    win
  • FC Dallas at LA Galaxy
    Model call: LA Galaxy (61% confidence, Lean) · Final 0-0
    Pending
  • San Jose Earthquakes at FC Cincinnati
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-4
    win
  • New England Revolution at CF Montréal
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-2
    Pass
  • Houston Dynamo FC at Sporting Kansas City
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-0
    loss
  • San Diego FC at Minnesota United FC
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-1
    Pass
  • Real Salt Lake at St. Louis CITY SC
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-1
    Pass

How these Major League Soccer projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Soccer. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Soccer slates