Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions today

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Sunday, August 30, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
14
5 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
    Model call: Chicago Cubs (70% confidence, Strong) · 11:20 PM UTC
    Pending
  • Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
    Model call: Toronto Blue Jays (70% confidence, Strong) · 5:37 PM UTC
    Pending
  • San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays
    Model call: Tampa Bay Rays (70% confidence, Strong) · 5:40 PM UTC
    Pending
  • Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
    Model call: Cleveland Guardians (70% confidence, Strong) · 5:40 PM UTC
    Pending
  • Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
    Model call: St. Louis Cardinals (70% confidence, Strong) · 6:15 PM UTC
    Pending
  • Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers
    No published call, model passed on this game · 6:10 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
    No published call, model passed on this game · 5:35 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Baltimore Orioles at Athletics
    No published call, model passed on this game · 8:05 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
    No published call, model passed on this game · 6:10 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels
    No published call, model passed on this game · 8:07 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
    No published call, model passed on this game · 4:15 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers
    No published call, model passed on this game · 5:40 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Houston Astros at New York Mets
    No published call, model passed on this game · 7:10 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
    No published call, model passed on this game · 5:35 PM UTC
    Pass

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates