Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Thursday, August 27, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Thursday, August 27, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
7
2 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
    Model call: Washington Nationals (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 1-7
    win
  • Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
    Model call: Toronto Blue Jays (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 13-2
    loss
  • Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-1
    win
  • Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-6
    win
  • Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-7
    win
  • Houston Astros at New York Yankees
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-1
    loss
  • Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 8-2
    loss

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates