Major League Baseball predictions for Monday, August 10, 2026
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Monday, August 10, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Baseball matchups and model calls
- lossNew York Mets at Atlanta BravesModel call: Atlanta Braves (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 8-5
- lossTampa Bay Rays at AthleticsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 10-6
- winBoston Red Sox at Toronto Blue JaysNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
- winMilwaukee Brewers at San Diego PadresNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
- lossPhiladelphia Phillies at St. Louis CardinalsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-5
- lossHouston Astros at San Francisco GiantsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-3
- lossTexas Rangers at Los Angeles AngelsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-1
- winBaltimore Orioles at Minnesota TwinsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-9
- winColorado Rockies at Arizona DiamondbacksNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-9
- winKansas City Royals at Los Angeles DodgersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-6
How these Major League Baseball projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained