Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Monday, August 10, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Monday, August 10, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
10
1 published call
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
    Model call: Atlanta Braves (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 8-5
    loss
  • Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 10-6
    loss
  • Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
    win
  • Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
    win
  • Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-5
    loss
  • Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-3
    loss
  • Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-1
    loss
  • Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-9
    win
  • Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-9
    win
  • Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-6
    win

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates