Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Thursday, August 20, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Thursday, August 20, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
9
5 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
    Model call: Tampa Bay Rays (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 5-1
    loss
  • Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
    Model call: Milwaukee Brewers (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 4-7
    win
  • Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
    Model call: Houston Astros (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 18-3
    loss
  • San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians
    Model call: Cleveland Guardians (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-5
    win
  • Athletics at Kansas City Royals
    Model call: Kansas City Royals (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-6
    win
  • Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-0
    loss
  • St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 10-9
    loss
  • New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-1
    loss
  • Washington Nationals at Texas Rangers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-2
    win

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates