Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
15
6 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Houston Astros at New York Yankees
    Model call: New York Yankees (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 9-7
    loss
  • Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
    Model call: Washington Nationals (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 3-1
    loss
  • Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals
    Model call: St. Louis Cardinals (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 13-1
    loss
  • Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
    Model call: Toronto Blue Jays (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 5-3
    loss
  • Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres
    Model call: San Diego Padres (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 1-0
    loss
  • Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
    Model call: Chicago White Sox (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 7-11
    win
  • Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
    win
  • Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 8-6
    loss
  • Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 7-3
    loss
  • Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-5
    win
  • Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-4
    win
  • Minnesota Twins at Athletics
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-4
    win
  • Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-3
    win
  • Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-4
    win
  • Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-4
    win

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates