Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Saturday, August 22, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Saturday, August 22, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
15
9 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox
    Model call: Boston Red Sox (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 2-3
    win
  • Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
    Model call: New York Yankees (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 4-3
    loss
  • Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks
    Model call: Arizona Diamondbacks (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 11-5
    loss
  • Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
    Model call: Miami Marlins (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 2-4
    win
  • Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers
    Model call: Texas Rangers (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 3-0
    loss
  • Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres
    Model call: San Diego Padres (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 5-7
    win
  • St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies
    Model call: Philadelphia Phillies (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 3-12
    win
  • Athletics at Houston Astros
    Model call: Houston Astros (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 4-3
    loss
  • New York Mets at Chicago White Sox
    Model call: Chicago White Sox (69% confidence, Moderate) · Final 10-5
    loss
  • Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-4
    win
  • Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
    win
  • Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-5
    win
  • Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-3
    loss
  • Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-3
    win
  • Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-4
    win

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates