Major League Baseball predictions for Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Baseball matchups and model calls
- winNew York Mets at Atlanta BravesModel call: Atlanta Braves (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 0-4
- winBoston Red Sox at Toronto Blue JaysNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-5
- winPhiladelphia Phillies at St. Louis CardinalsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-2
- winMilwaukee Brewers at San Diego PadresNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-11
- lossCincinnati Reds at Chicago White SoxNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-4
- lossChicago Cubs at Washington NationalsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 8-6
- winHouston Astros at San Francisco GiantsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-4
- winTexas Rangers at Los Angeles AngelsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
- lossTampa Bay Rays at AthleticsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 12-4
- winPittsburgh Pirates at Miami MarlinsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-2
- winSeattle Mariners at New York YankeesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-4
- winCleveland Guardians at Detroit TigersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-6
- lossColorado Rockies at Arizona DiamondbacksNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-2
- winKansas City Royals at Los Angeles DodgersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-5
- lossBaltimore Orioles at Minnesota TwinsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-2
How these Major League Baseball projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained