Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Saturday, August 29, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Saturday, August 29, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
17
7 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
    Model call: Chicago Cubs (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 5-17
    win
  • Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
    Model call: New York Yankees (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 2-9
    win
  • Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers
    Model call: Milwaukee Brewers (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 3-5
    win
  • Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
    Model call: St. Louis Cardinals (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 6-2
    loss
  • Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
    Model call: New York Yankees (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 6-0
    loss
  • Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
    Model call: Toronto Blue Jays (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 3-4
    win
  • Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
    Model call: Cleveland Guardians (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 8-3
    loss
  • Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
    win
  • Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-7
    win
  • Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 7-1
    loss
  • Houston Astros at New York Mets
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-6
    win
  • Baltimore Orioles at Athletics
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-3
    loss
  • Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-5
    win
  • Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Angels
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-2
    loss
  • Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-2
    loss
  • San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-7
    win
  • Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-2
    win

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates