Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Monday, August 3, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Monday, August 3, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
8
1 published call
Major League Baseball graded record
56.1%
83 wins, 65 losses across 148 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
    Model call: Milwaukee Brewers (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 4-3
    loss
  • Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-10
    win
  • Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 13-9
    loss
  • San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-5
    win
  • San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-1
    loss
  • Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-1
    loss
  • Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-6
    win
  • St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 13-7
    loss

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates