Major League Baseball predictions for Monday, August 3, 2026
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Monday, August 3, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Baseball matchups and model calls
- lossPittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee BrewersModel call: Milwaukee Brewers (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 4-3
- winLos Angeles Dodgers at Chicago CubsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-10
- lossTampa Bay Rays at Colorado RockiesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 13-9
- winSan Diego Padres at Arizona DiamondbacksNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-5
- lossSan Francisco Giants at Texas RangersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-1
- lossToronto Blue Jays at Houston AstrosNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-1
- winWashington Nationals at Philadelphia PhilliesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-6
- lossSt. Louis Cardinals at New York YankeesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 13-7
How these Major League Baseball projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained