Major League Baseball predictions for Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Baseball matchups and model calls
- winPittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee BrewersModel call: Milwaukee Brewers (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 2-4
- winMinnesota Twins at Kansas City RoyalsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-8
- winLos Angeles Dodgers at Chicago CubsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-5
- lossTampa Bay Rays at Colorado RockiesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 9-7
- lossNew York Mets at Cleveland GuardiansNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-2
- winChicago White Sox at Boston Red SoxNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-14
- lossSan Diego Padres at Arizona DiamondbacksNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 9-4
- winAthletics at Cincinnati RedsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-5
- winMiami Marlins at Atlanta BravesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-4
- winSan Francisco Giants at Texas RangersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 4-5
- winWashington Nationals at Philadelphia PhilliesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-5
- lossDetroit Tigers at Seattle MarinersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 8-0
- winToronto Blue Jays at Houston AstrosNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-7
- winLos Angeles Angels at Baltimore OriolesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-3
- winSt. Louis Cardinals at New York YankeesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 0-2
How these Major League Baseball projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained