Major League Baseball predictions today
Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Sunday, August 30, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.
Major League Baseball matchups and model calls
- PendingCincinnati Reds at Chicago CubsModel call: Chicago Cubs (70% confidence, Strong) · 11:20 PM UTC
- winSeattle Mariners at Toronto Blue JaysModel call: Toronto Blue Jays (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 0-7
- winSan Diego Padres at Tampa Bay RaysModel call: Tampa Bay Rays (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 4-5
- winKansas City Royals at Cleveland GuardiansModel call: Cleveland Guardians (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 1-11
- lossPittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis CardinalsModel call: St. Louis Cardinals (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 5-4
- lossTexas Rangers at Milwaukee BrewersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 7-4
- winColorado Rockies at Atlanta BravesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-3
- lossBaltimore Orioles at AthleticsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 8-5
- winChicago White Sox at Minnesota TwinsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-5
- PassPhiladelphia Phillies at Los Angeles AngelsNo published call, model passed on this game · 8:07 PM UTC
- lossMiami Marlins at Washington NationalsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-2
- lossLos Angeles Dodgers at Detroit TigersNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-1
- lossHouston Astros at New York MetsNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-3
- winBoston Red Sox at New York YankeesNo published call, model passed on this game · Final 1-16
How these Major League Baseball projections are built
Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.
What calibration meansReading the confidence tiers
Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.
Confidence tiers explained