Major League Baseball model projections

Major League Baseball predictions for Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Model win probabilities and confidence tiers for every Major League Baseball game on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, published before first pitch, tip or kick and graded automatically afterwards. Research and analytics only, not betting advice.

Games on the slate
15
5 published calls
Major League Baseball graded record
57.1%
92 wins, 69 losses across 161 graded calls

Major League Baseball matchups and model calls

  • Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox
    Model call: Boston Red Sox (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 9-6
    loss
  • Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
    Model call: Minnesota Twins (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 2-15
    win
  • San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
    Model call: Pittsburgh Pirates (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 12-13
    win
  • Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians
    Model call: Cleveland Guardians (70% confidence, Strong) · Final 1-6
    win
  • Athletics at Texas Rangers
    Model call: Texas Rangers (70% confidence, Strong) · 12:05 AM UTC
    Pending
  • New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 2-6
    win
  • St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
    No published call, model passed on this game · 2:10 AM UTC
    Pass
  • New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
    No published call, model passed on this game · 1:38 AM UTC
    Pass
  • Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies
    No published call, model passed on this game · 12:40 AM UTC
    Pass
  • San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 3-4
    win
  • Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 5-9
    win
  • Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
    No published call, model passed on this game · 12:10 AM UTC
    Pass
  • Miami Marlins at Kansas City Royals
    No published call, model passed on this game · Final 6-3
    loss
  • Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
    No published call, model passed on this game · 11:40 PM UTC
    Pass
  • Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
    No published call, model passed on this game · 1:40 AM UTC
    Pass

How these Major League Baseball projections are built

Each matchup runs through an ensemble of opponent-adjusted efficiency, recent form, availability of key players, rest and travel, and sport-specific factors. The blended output is calibrated against past results before a confidence tier is assigned, and games below the league publish floor are recorded as a pass instead of a call.

What calibration means

Reading the confidence tiers

Lean is a slight model preference, Moderate a clear one, and Strong is reserved for calls clearing both the confidence and edge floors for Major League Baseball. Every tier is graded separately in the public ledger, so you can check whether Strong calls actually outperform Lean calls over a real sample.

Confidence tiers explained

Recent Major League Baseball slates